Landeshauptstadt Dresden - www.dresden.de

Address: https://www.dresden.de/en/city/statistics/Population.php latest update: 19.07.2023 17:15:00 Uhr Printed on: 24.04.2024 21:23:11 Uhr

Population

Current population

Dresden 2022 had a population growth by about 8.000 inhabitants with main residence.

Population density: 1,734 inhabitants/km²
Total population: 575,634 inhabitants
Population with main residence in the city: 569,173 inhabitants
- of which:
  women: 286,179 (50.3 %)
  men: 282,994 (49.7 %)
- of which:
  foreigners: 63,396 (11.1 %)

Accommodation and households

Number of households: 307,464 of which
households with 1 person: 161,520
households with 2 persons: 85,601
households with 3 persons: 30,605
households with 4 persons: 22,495
households with 5 or more persons: 7,243

(Figures as per 31st December 2022)

Population forecast

The population forecast is based on the data of the municipal population register. The forecast figures are also relevant for the planning of nurseries and school development and are therefore calculated in the middle of the year. The forecast period starts with the existing data as of 30 June 2022 and comprises the years up to 2040. According to this prognosis, Dresden will have about 578,800 inhabitants in mid-2040.

Benchmarks of the previous development

Since 2000 Dresden has been recording a continuous population growth. Since the last change of territorial units at the beginning of 1999 the population with a main residence has increased by more than 125,000 inhabitants until June 2022 according to the resident's registration office. On average this was about 5,400 inhabitants per year. The main reason for the positive population development is migration. In the above named period altogether 85,000 persons more have moved to Dresden than leaving it. More than half of the migration surplus originates from Saxony without consideration of the surrounding region of Dresden. After an abrupt decrease immediately after the German reunification the number of live births increased from year to year as of 1995 until 2017 (exceptions: 2001, 2002 and 2015). The year 2016 with 6,429 births has been the year with the highest number of childbirths since 1987. As of 31 December 2022 4,740 live births have been counted during the last twelve months. However, the number of deaths has fluctuated since the mid-1990s by about 5,000 persons each year, last year with an increasing tendency to over 6,000. Since the beginning of 1999 over 4,500 children more were born than people died, whereas a birth surplus has only occurred since 2006.

Bases and implementation of the forecast

The Civil Register of the State Capital of Dresden serves as the data source for the population forecast. The respective available data and the forecast both refer to the middle of the year. This enables a better fit with the planning of the school year. The software "SIKURS" is used for the forecast calculation. The prognosis concept of SIKURS is based on the standard procedure of continuously updating a given initial number of inhabitants from period to period based on immigration and emigration, births and deaths. Hereby it distinguishes between 100 years of age and gender. It is a so-called cohort component model. In order to receive a sufficient number base for the forecast calculation even in smaller areas with many territorial units, the individual territorial units are combined to so-called structure types which have a similar behaviour with regard to births, mortality or migration. Furthermore, the current building completions and permits and - according to the planning status - the residential building area reserves with different realisation probabilities are taken into account at small scale. The urban population forecast is no prediction or prophecy, it is a projection with conditional statements and the best possible consideration of the current age- and gender-specific demographic behaviour and current development trends. The last five years are investigated in more detail for the setting of assumptions. The assumptions are determined in the municipal work group "Population Forecast". If necessary, external experts are engaged in this work group.

Central assumptions of the forecast

The assumptions for the city as a whole were determined based on current trends in a municipal work group headed by the Urban Planning Authority (Stadtplanungsamt) and with the participation of external experts. The assumptions for the city as a whole in the last forecast proved to be realistic for the first forecast year, whereby the development in the first forecast year was slightly under-estimated. Besides the update of the parameters, only slight changes were made in 2018 compared to 2017. In total, they led to a slightly more positive overall result.

The following assumptions based on the current figures of the Civil Register of the State Capital of Dresden were made for the forecast calculation:

Births and Deaths

Statistically speaking, a woman living in Dresden currently has 1.44 children. This so-called total fertility rate will increase up to 1.46 until 2035 in the forecast. Life expectancy will increase for women to 86.7 years (+ 1.9 years) and for men to almost 81.5 (+ 2.2 years) until 2035 in the forecast.

Under these assumptions the number of births will decrease from currently about 5,800 to almost 5,200 in the year 2027 and subsequently stagnate for the time being. However, as of 2029 the birth rate will increase again and once again reach today's level in 2035. The decline in the birth rate results from the smaller number of women aged 25 to 34 who give birth to a particularly large number of children. On the other hand, the number of deceased persons will continuously increase up to 6,200 until 2028 and then stagnate. The balance between deaths and births would thus be largely balanced from 2021 until 2035. After that a new considerable excess of births would develop.

Migration

The positive migration balance which was strongly influenced by the migration of asylum-seeking persons during the past years will decrease continuously in the forecast period. It will decrease every year from currently approximately 3,500 (2017/18) to 1,300 persons in the year 2034/35. A reason for this assumption is, among others, the rather unfavourable demographic situation in the states of the former East Germany with a positive development of the labour market for employees. In the assumptions the migration balance between the states of former East Germany and foreign countries is clearly positive - however with a declining rate - and will be slightly positive in the Western German states. However, in the long run Dresden will altogether lose inhabitants, especially families with children, to the surrounding regions, as it can already be observed. Only at the end of the forecast period a decrease of migration to the surrounding regions is assumed.

Development in smaller areas with many territorial units

Besides births and deaths, significant influencing factors of the forecasted development in smaller areas are immigration, emigration and inner-city moving in grouped areas (domestic types) as well as the current construction activities and existing medium to long-term residential building area reserves. The moving and migration behaviour in smaller areas during the past years is updated in the forecast on the basis of age and gender-specific rates and quotas. On a district level the forecast for small areas is only published until maximally 2025 as long-term statements concerning moving behaviour are becoming unsecure due to construction activities and changing conditions on the housing market.

Most important results

According to the calculations which were for the first time made until 2035, Dresden's population will increase from about 561,300 inhabitants at the end of June of this year to about 578,000 inhabitants in 2035. Therefore, the population would increase by about 17,300 persons or by 3.1 percent during the next 15 years. Compared with the earlier municipal forecasts from 2014, the population forecast for 2020 assumes the lowest population growth and, for the first time, a birth deficit of a total of 10,600 people in the years 2020 to 2035. Different developments are forecast for the individual age groups. Increases can be expected among young adults (18 to 29 years) and people between 45 and 64 years. The reason for this is the significant increase in births in recent years after the dramatic collapse in births in the early 1990s. For this reason, the increase affects the older cohorts with a time lag. On the other hand, the number of children under the age of 6 will decrease by around 11 percent by 2035. After 2031, however, a slight increase can be expected again. The maximum for 3-year-olds will be reached in 2020 and that for 6-year-olds in 2022. The proportion of school-age children and young people (6 to 17 years) will increase by around 2 percent in the forecast period. In the 30 to 44 age group, a significant decline of 12 percent is expected by 2035. An increase of 10 percent was calculated for the 45 to 64 year olds. A very strong increase is also to be expected in the number of seniors, although the development is partly the opposite due to the different numbers of cohorts. The group of 65 to 74 year olds will increase by 11,100 people (+22 percent), while the number of 75 to 84 year olds will decrease by 9,300 people (-17 percent). In relative terms, the number of 85-year-olds and older is increasing the most at 39 percent (7,100 people). The average age will change little in the forecast period compared to today due to the increase in younger and older age groups. It increases from 43.3 to 43.9 years. At district level, there are also very different developments. Due to the high level of construction activity, the population of the city center and districts close to the city center will continue to grow until 2027. Worthy of particular mention are: Albertstadt (+52 percent), inner old town (+37 percent), Pirnaische Vorstadt (+36 percent), Mickten (+26 percent). During this period, the highest population declines are to be expected in the districts of Prohlis-Süd (-4 percent), Gorbitz-Ost (-3 percent), Gruna (-3 percent) and Räcknitz/Zschertnitz (-3 percent). Due to the age structure, there will be high excess deaths in the inner city, in some parts of the city with large prefabricated housing areas and to a lesser extent on the outskirts. Surplus births are expected, for example, in Mickten, in Albertstadt, in Klotzsche, in Pieschen-Nord, in Bühlau/Weißer Hirsch, in Radeberger Vorstadt and in Johannstadt-Süd.